Rockies hope to extend charge as they battle Reds

Baseball Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- Don't look now, but the Colorado Rockies may about to be putting together one of those strong September runs that has propelled them into the postseason in years past.

After climbing back into the National League West race with a needed sweep of the division leader in their last series, the Rockies will have their playoff legitimacy tested when the team with the best record in the Senior Circuit, the Cincinnati Reds, pays a visit to Coors Field for a four-game set which begins this afternoon.

Colorado has prevailed in 10 of its past 14 contests and pulled within 4 1/2 games of free-falling San Diego in the NL West standings after winning all three meetings with the Padres over the weekend. The Rockies completed the sweep with Sunday's 4-2 triumph in which Melvin Mora came through with a tie- breaking two-run single in the top of the seventh inning.

"We've done a great job in this series and as of late of taking advantage of things that are there in front of us," said Colorado manager Jim Tracy after Sunday's result. "At this time of year, that is what you have to do."

September surges are certainly nothing new to the Rockies. The club won 14 of its final 15 regular-season tests to claim the NL Wild Card during its memorable 2007 season, and went 10-1 to start the month last season to nail down another playoff berth.

Troy Tulowitzki homered and also knocked in a pair of runs during yesterday's victory, while Carlos Gonzalez finished 3-for-5 for Colorado to raise his NL- leading average to .337. The standout outfielder is batting a scorching .529 (27-for-51) with six homers and 16 RBI over the course of a current 13-game hitting streak.

Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa (6-4) held the sputtering Padres to two runs over the first six innings, with relievers Matt Belisle and Huston Street combining for three scoreless frames the rest of the way.

Colorado now returns home to take on a tough Cincinnati squad that tops the NL with a 79-57 record and holds a seven-game advantage on second-place St. Louis in the Central Division, although the Cardinals closed the gap a bit by taking two of three matchups from the Reds this past weekend.

St. Louis came through with a 4-2 come-from-behind win in Sunday's rubber match, with ex-Rockie Matt Holliday's three-run homer in the bottom of the sixth inning providing the deciding margin.

Cincinnati had broken a scoreless tie on Orlando Cabrera's two-run double in the top of the fifth, but mustered just five other hits off Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter and three relievers on the afternoon.

Homer Bailey (3-3) gave up Holliday's go-ahead blast and allowed four runs in all while striking out four batters in six innings of work.

The Reds still lead the NL in both team batting average and runs scored, but their potent offense figures to receive a challenge from Colorado ace Ubaldo Jimenez in today's opener. The 2010 All-Star Game starter is locked in a three-way tie for the league lead with 17 wins, even though he's been stuck on that number for more than a month now.

Jimenez has gone 0-4 over five starts that followed an August 4 verdict over San Francisco, but can't be solely to blame for his drought. The hard-throwing right-hander has posted a 3.00 earned run average over that winless stretch, with the Rockies scoring two times or less in each of those defeats.

The native Dominican had some more tough luck this past Wednesday in San Francisco, where he limited the Giants to two runs on four hits while striking out 10 over eight strong innings. Nonetheless, he came out on the short end of a 2-1 decision.

Jimenez has been tough to beat at Coors Field this year, however, with the 26- year-old sporting an 8-1 mark along with a 3.16 ERA in 12 home starts. In four career encounters with the Reds, he's 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA.

Aaron Harang draws the assignment for the Reds in today's opener and will be making his second start since coming back from a two-month stint on the disabled list because of recurring back spasms. The towering right-hander pitched four innings in his return and allowed three runs (one earned) on eight hits while walking three batters in Tuesday's no-decision versus Milwaukee.

Harang is 6-7 with a 4.92 ERA over 18 starts this season, but only one of those wins has come on the road. The veteran has fared well at hitter-friendly Coors Field in the past, however, having compiled a 2-1 record with a 3.15 ERA over three previous starts at the spacious venue.

The 31-year-old is 4-2 lifetime against the Rockies and has a 3.00 ERA over those six starts.

Harang was on the mound for Cincinnati's last win at Coors Field, which took place on August 22, 2008. The Reds have lost six in a row to the Rockies in Denver following that outing and are just 3-15 over the last 18 meetings between these teams.

Cincinnati did win two of three bouts against Colorado at Great American Ball Park from July 16-18, however.

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Betting Football

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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